Chris Izworski reporting from Michigan on the current state of the Cedar River this Wednesday morning. The river is running at 6 cubic feet per second, which is 22 percent of its historical median for this date. That’s not a typo. For a central UP freestone stream in mid-September, that’s drought-low, and it means the Cedar is in tough shape right now.
The Michigan Trout Report rating says it plainly: fish are off. Long leader, small fly. That’s not a suggestion to get creative or to grind it out. That’s a heads-up that conditions are marginal at best, and the angler who decides to make the drive to County Road 366 or the Cedar River village access should arrive with realistic expectations and the discipline to work small water with finesse.
Why This Matters Today
Six cubic feet per second on a freestone river means low, clear water that will spook fish easily. The Cedar doesn’t have the big water or the consistent depth that allows careless presentations to work. In September, when the water is naturally cooling and browns are beginning to think about spawning runs, the fish are already on edge. Add drought conditions, and they’re tucked into the deeper slots, the shade lines, and the undercut banks where they don’t have to work hard for food.
The gauge height of 18.29 feet is well below where you’d want to see it for productive fishing. The weather forecast isn’t going to help immediately, either. Today’s high of 70 degrees under sunny skies with virtually no rain chance means the water will stay low and likely warm slightly before cooling tonight to 44 degrees. That’s a swing that will make fish even more cautious through the afternoon.
The better news is that the forecast for Thursday through Saturday shows rain developing. Friday carries a 40 percent rain chance and Saturday jumps to 73 percent. If that rain materializes as predicted, the Cedar should respond with rising flow by late Friday or Saturday. That’s the window worth watching.
Fishing Today If You Go
If you decide the Cedar is worth today’s drive, go with the understanding that you’re fishing on hard mode. Bring a 5X or 6X fluorocarbon tippet and flies in the #16 to #18 range. Blue-Winged Olives should still be emerging during overcast moments, and fall Baetis are active in September on cooler, cloudier days. The Parachute BWO in #16 or an RS2 in #18 fished subsurface just under the film will give you the best chance at rises. Fish emergers, not dries, until you see actual surface activity.
Terrestrials remain viable. Beetles and ants fished tight to the grassy banks and any undercut structure might draw a response from browns holding shallow. Use a #12 Foam Beetle and let it sit. A single twitch beats repeated casting in low, clear water.
The evening window from 6:30 PM to 8:00 PM will offer your best light. The sun drops at 8:00 PM, and that golden hour should bring whatever hatch activity the Cedar has to offer. If conditions are right, you might see some White Fly emerge, though late September White Fly swarms are less dense than August’s dense clouds. Fish a White Wulff or White Comparadun in #12 or #14 if you see surface disturbance.
Waiting for Better Water
Unless you’re a local with a quick access and low expectations, Thursday afternoon into Friday looks more promising. The forecast shows Thursday high of 76 degrees with only 13 percent rain chance, so the river will still be low, but it’s the last decent day of this current window. By Friday, rain odds jump to 40 percent, and by Saturday, 73 percent. Plan for Saturday or Sunday when the Cedar should respond with at least moderate flow improvement and cooler, cloudier conditions that will push fish to feed more readily.
The Cedar holds brook trout in the headwaters, brown trout throughout, and steelhead that run up from Green Bay in spring. In September, focus on browns. Check the steelhead season dates before making a trip, as the Green Bay tributary regulations may have specific windows.
For real-time gauge data and flow updates as this system develops, check https://michigantroutreport.com.